• Palestinian elections are on track to take place during the coming months – for the first time in over a decade. 
• The EU and the US have a decisive role to play in ensuring the electoral process succeeds. In doing so, they can support Palestinian political renewal and improve prospects for a sustainable peace agreement with Israel. 
• Within Hamas, moderates have gambled on elections. The movement – along with Fatah – is looking for new avenues for political engagement given the increasingly inauspicious regional and international context. 
• The EU and the US must: commit to respecting the outcome of elections; persuade Israel to support a free, fair, and inclusive process; and pursue a constructive relationship with any new government that pledges respect for democracy, human rights, and international law. 

In May and July this year, parliamentary and presidential elections will be held in Palestine, for the first time in 15 years. This will not be Palestine’s first democratic experiment, but it will be a decisive moment for Palestinians and will shape the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While this will not by itself mend the many fractures that have arisen since the 2007 Gaza-West Bank split, national elections combined with a post-election power sharing agreement between Hamas and Fatah would nonetheless assist full national reconciliation, institutional and societal reunification, and political reform. 

The latest paper from Hugh Lovatt, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations – Back to democracy: Europe, Hamas, and the Palestinian elections – looks at Hamas’s political calculations, future electoral outcomes, and how the EU and US can help ensure a positive outcome that aligns with their own foreign policy objectives. 

Hugh Lovatt, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations asserts,  

“The EU has a rare opportunity to generate positive conflict transformation. By ensuring that this upcoming electoral process is successful it can draw Hamas towards political moderation and support for a two-state solution. This can pave the way for an inclusive diplomatic track to advance intra-Palestinian reunification and a future sustainable peace agreement with Israel. Failure by contrast, will lead to a more hard-line Hamas and entrench Palestinian political dysfunctionality.” 

If the EU does not encourage and support the forthcoming polls, it will put the electoral process at greater risk of failure. The EU must remain focused on its strategic objectives. Elections represent an opportunity for the EU to help develop Palestinian democracy, accountable institutions, and a unified government, based on the rule of law. A future unity government can also help support Gaza’s socio-economic recovery and avert renewed war with Israel. 

At a time when the Oslo peace process has run aground and realistic prospects for reaching a two-state solution have almost entirely disappeared, it would be a significant achievement to bring Hamas into a nonviolent political strategy for resolving the conflict with Israel and ensure its respect for democratic rules and international law. In doing so, the EU would be helping to create the basis for a sustainable political agreement with Israel in the future, underpinned by cross-factional and Palestinian public support.  

While the path ahead will not be easy, working to support successful elections and secure a positive post-election political environment represents a wise investment of the EU’s political capital.  

About the author: 

Hugh Lovatt is a policy fellow with the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Since joining ECFR, he has advised European governments on the Middle East Peace Process and domestic Palestinian politics. Lovatt co-led a 2016 track-II initiative to draft an updated set of final status parameters and co-developed an innovative online project mapping Palestinian politics.